Buying a Used PB - WTH is Going On?

[dafish]

Out of fear of "getting a bad one", and/or taking an incredible depreciation hit, for the moment I'm thinking the smart move is to look for a '22 or used '23. However, some of the area dealers are smoking crack. Or worse. I've got one even listing a used '23 for over MSRP. Lots. SMH.

For your comment, here's what I'm thinking:

1) I can buy a new truck of my exact wishes at 10% off. Nobody consumer or dealer, should be paying that for a used one.
2) Residual value (value after depreciation) is well documented. Generally 49-50% at 5 years, 63-64% at 3 years, etc. Lets expand on the three year for a moment. If we can buy new at 10% off, then the remaining depreciation (46% - 10%) is distributed over 36 months. No way that's straight line, so lets call it 16% first year, 12% second, and 8% third. Maybe 7% the next, then 6, then.... This is going to be relatively close, if not generous.

So OK, 10% new, 16% additional first year. I'm thinking a one year of should be roughly (wholesale) 74% off MSRP. Dealer profit is expected but I'm seeing crazy asking prices. What am I missing? Are folks so desperate for a deal they're actually buying used at the crazy prices I'm seeing?

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[HammaMan]

Depends, if the strike goes through prices go up. The whole supply / demand thing.

That said there's plenty of used trucks available to choose from, just use autotrader to find it. That's the easiest. A well optioned lariat can be had for low 50s depending on how many miles on it if you're willing to travel to get it.

 

[amschind]

If I'd had the opportunity to buy a used PB, I absolutely would've done so. The decider for me was $0 down/0% for 6 years, which is an absolutely ludicrous note and with inflation at 9-10% at the time, I was going to come out nearly ahead of depreciation with savings from the negative real interest rate.

With any used vehicle, buying from a private seller who has owned the vehicle for its entire life and who has maintained it is really the only option. Dealers make far more on used vehicles than new ones because the delta between what they pay for a trade and what they can charge is quite large. With a private seller, you need to be able to offer and walk away, but the most important thing is that you know that they've done the maintenance.

 

[dafish]

Hm. So I'm not nuts (they jury is always out on this), they're just gauging who they can. Why am I not surprised. Nor is this new. I've bought several new vehicles just because of this silly @%$.

 

[HammaMan]

Hm. So I'm not nuts (they jury is always out on this), they're just gauging who they can. Why am I not surprised. Nor is this new. I've bought several new vehicles just because of this silly @%$.

If you're not paying cash, do mind those interest rates and try to line up financing ahead of time.

 

[Lalo11]

Out of fear of "getting a bad one", and/or taking an incredible depreciation hit, for the moment I'm thinking the smart move is to look for a '22 or used '23. However, some of the area dealers are smoking crack. Or worse. I've got one even listing a used '23 for over MSRP. Lots. SMH.

For your comment, here's what I'm thinking:

1) I can buy a new truck of my exact wishes at 10% off. Nobody consumer or dealer, should be paying that for a used one.
2) Residual value (value after depreciation) is well documented. Generally 49-50% at 5 years, 63-64% at 3 years, etc. Lets expand on the three year for a moment. If we can buy new at 10% off, then the remaining depreciation (46% - 10%) is distributed over 36 months. No way that's straight line, so lets call it 16% first year, 12% second, and 8% third. Maybe 7% the next, then 6, then.... This is going to be relatively close, if not generous.

So OK, 10% new, 16% additional first year. I'm thinking a one year of should be roughly (wholesale) 74% off MSRP. Dealer profit is expected but I'm seeing crazy asking prices. What am I missing? Are folks so desperate for a deal they're actually buying used at the crazy prices I'm seeing?

Just bought a used Platinum PB with 3K miles for 69k three weeks ago. A little steep but worth it so far. Considering it’s a 2023 and brand new they go for 84k

 

[Davexxxx]

I don't think buying used vs new, gets you out of getting a bad one.

A personal rule I have, is no used FWDs.

A lot of very expensive parts in there to be abused by newbies.

The depreciation is real and I've bought plenty of nice used cars and 2WD, centered on that strategy, just not 4WD.

And unless paying cash, used, carry higher financing costs, eating some of the savings.

But I keep vehicles for long periods. People who trade often, have different priorities.

 

[UGADawg96]

When I was younger I bought used cars and kept them no more than 2-4 years. Now that I'm older, I generally buy new and keep them over 10 years. We have a 2010 Odyssey with 125k and a 2013 Outback with 135k. I do have an itch to replace both of them with something new, been debating a Pilot, MDX, X5, or something similar, but will probably wait another year or two. I did buy a 2019 Silverado, but it was a lemon and dumped it around the 2 year mark. Currently also have a 2021 PB with 0% interest and plan to keep it 10+ years.

If I needed to buy another truck tomorrow, I'd order from Granger.

 

[mdn14]

I'd buy used. I got my loaded Lariat at about 25% off MSRP back in February with 13,500 miles on it. My wife and I did end up taking a day off to drive down to nowhere West Virginia to get it though - about 4 hours one way.

 

[RickBullotta]

I think your odds of getting a "bad one" are lowest with a Job 1 2021 that has been kept up-to-date and had any recalls done.

 

[PB2021]

Can’t disagree. Beyond the recalls our Job 1 ‘21 has been flawless. And it came with all the options it was spec’d for.

 

[RickBullotta]

Can’t disagree. Beyond the recalls our Job 1 ‘21 has been flawless. And it came with all the options it was spec’d for.

Same here. 30K miles and runs great, everything "works as advertised".

 

[dafish]

Used? Oh I would, but look at what some folks are doing: Somebody just bought a used Platinum for $69k. Dude paid roughly new dealer cost for a used truck!

 

[wessermgm]

Count me in the camp of folks that used to get low mileage used trucks to let others take the depreciation hit. However, a number of factors have changed that practice for me. First, there isn't anywhere near as much of a depreciation hit the past 5 years as it used to be. My last two trades, one I traded after 14 months for MORE than I paid (BMW 540i), the other was a 2021 LT Trail Boss I drove and hated for 8 months - bought at height of pandemic for $52k; my Ford dealer gave me - $52k in trade. These are atypical, but illustrative of the fact that you don't lose 15% driving it off the lot they way you used to.

Second, I think there are way more lemons than there used to be. These are very highly engineered and complex interrelated technology systems - not cars and trucks anymore. The mechanical side of things is the least of your worries on modern vehicles. You get a bad or corrupt chip in the system, it will foul up your whole ride and maybe real difficult for the mechanic at a dealer to figure out the source of the problem. - it will be cycle after cycle of trial and error attempts to "fix" the problem and it will start early on in the ownership of the car. Thus, what do folks do when they spent tens of thousands on a new car that has been in the shop 3 months out of the first year? When the latest "fix" comes in - they trade that POS for something different. You the used car buyer are sold because the low miles and the continued warranty. I feel that tons of the low mileage market are these vehicles. I think you are better off getting a 3 year old vehicle with 30-40k because that is probably a lease return and has a better chance of being a reliable vehicle.

 

[JerseyMike]

its bizarre how high the prices are used.

something that may factor is the now free PB option on 2024 F150s, a nicely equipped 2024 BAP Platinum PB is now around 75k (68k with dealer discounts) which I think is a price cut from the 2023

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