A break down of potential future tariffs.

[GypsyDanger]

The kangaroo math used to distribute the propaganda numbers is really frustrating. For all my grievances with the last group gaslighting us, this is the other side of the same coin. I could get behind being calculated with tariffs to bring back targeted industries, but a sledge hammer to undo 50+ years of economic practice is just inviting another massive transfer of wealth.

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[ebsocalmtb]

Y'all need to do some self educating on how the long term play of tarrifs work with regards to our economy. These tarrif's aren't actually about our economy, they are about leverage for the current administration. (google columbia deportations with regards to tarrif threats) Said another way, this isn't actually about making our economy better, it's about destabilizing the geo political landscape and chaos to implement other administration agendas or utilize leverage.

Manufacturing job loss within this country was one of the biggest disruptors to middle class upward mobility. Bringing manufacturing jobs back into the country with tarrifs is a fools errand. The supply chains are not elastic enough to capitalize on this, it would take decades of consistent administrative policy for it to pan out to re-tool, cross shop like for like vendors and train the workforce. If, the manufacturing jobs come back to the US, they will be automated and lights out as there are still substantial tax breaks in place for conversion to lights out mfg equipment to corporations. In the rare cases that they do bring back mfg jobs, they do so at a cost of around 500k-800k per job, as evidenced by the data from the 2019 washer/dryer tarrifs.

These policies do benefit "people", it's just the same people that people v citizens united decided were people, ie, the most powerful and influential voters in our democracy, corporations.

Back to the F150. Talk about a great example and case study for what shifting trade policies can do to the way a corporation does business. Despite the fact that I think these policies are pretty $hite for economic outcomes... there is merit to some tarrifs. That being said, the auto industry in particular, is an interesting front line for many reasons and the F150 in particular is a good case study:
1) the US is not strong enough with natural resources, nor manufacturing costs/capacity to take on China directly. Free trade across US/Canada/Mexico, allows specialization and access to materials that allow us to compete directly with chinese auto companies. Alone, neither 3 of the NA nations can do so.
2) Vehicles are so complex, that it's nearly impossible to avoid some sort of tarrif on them, which makes them a great analog for most manufacturing products. Sure, you can assemble those vehicles here in the states, but you can't do so with american aluminum, nor lithium as we simply do not have enough of those resources. IE, the tarrifs are too far reaching to not have direct impact on the middle class.
3) This is a heavily automated manufacturing sector. Many of the automated machines utilized to build vehicles, come from oversees and subject to massive tarrifs.
4) Re-tooling these factories and building new ones will take longer then this administration will last. Even if there is another conservative president in waiting to continue these policies, it will take a minimum of 4 years to build those factories and setup the tooling/qa-qc. All at a time where material prices, construction cost and the cost of construction loans is sky-rocketing. It simply doesn't make sense for companies to make that jump now, it's better to wait it out and see what happens and charge the consumers the delta in the meantime.
5) We are already seeing american manufactured products that are less impacted by tarrifs, raising in price to match the increased prices of the competition. Capitalist economies are opportunist by nature, evidenced in real time.

Overall, it's impossible not to see that this doesn't become an overnight 15-30% hit to inflation or consumer buying power. The F-150 is interesting because it spans from just above median vehicle price all the way to luxury vehicle prices. Because of that, we should be able to see in action, what cross section of our consumers stop spending money. My hunch is that those that can afford an 80k truck, will just as easily afford that 80k truck when it costs 100k. In contrast, those that were debating on buying a 45-50-60k truck, will have a hard time making the jump to afford that same vehicle at 80k. There is no way that Ford can pivot fast enough to mitigate these tarrifs to the cost of the F150...

We couldn't ask for a better canary in the coal mine on this situation then the most popular selling vehicle in america, which happens to span a HUGE cross section of our consumers. In addition, the production methodology of the f-150 is the direct result of 3 decades of free trade policy for north america that just pivoted on a dime. This will be a true test of american consumers patience with an administration that digs into their products and large, discretionary purchase desires/needs. It will be a great test of american corporate patience with an administration that presents itself as pro-business, but does not provided a metered, predictable economic climate for long term corporate investment.

Overall, I'm stoked to have bought my 22'. I'd be bummed if I were still in the market for a new truck. I am however, slightly bummed that the formative years of my economic earning and career, are at risk nearly matching the level of risk in a back alley dice game.

 

[HammaMan]

I don't think you give the US enough credit. Necessity is the mother of all invention. They'll be some bitching whining and moaning, and then there will be results because that's what we do. Tesla and SpaceX are prime examples of what can be done. China's success isn't because they're innovative, it's because they're willing to quickly adopt working strategies, strategies other US companies have yet to need to adopt.

Some will be instant beneficiaries scaling lines / adding shifts, others will move as quickly as they can for expansion and retooling.

 

[m_bt54]

I don't think you give the US enough credit. Necessity is the mother of all invention. They'll be some bitching whining and moaning, and then there will be results because that's what we do. Tesla and SpaceX are prime examples of what can be done. China's success isn't because they're innovative, it's because they're willing to quickly adopt working strategies, strategies other US companies have yet to need to adopt.

Some will be instant beneficiaries scaling lines / adding shifts, others will move as quickly as they can for expansion and retooling.

Just got mine back after lending it out but it was only the 3rd person who took me up on it over the course of a year or so. I do make it slightly more difficult only loaning it out locally in New England. I do my best to follow the thread for anyone local asking

 

[GregBC]

I don't think you give the US enough credit. Necessity is the mother of all invention. They'll be some bitching whining and moaning, and then there will be results because that's what we do. Tesla and SpaceX are prime examples of what can be done. China's success isn't because they're innovative, it's because they're willing to quickly adopt working strategies, strategies other US companies have yet to need to adopt.

Some will be instant beneficiaries scaling lines / adding shifts, others will move as quickly as they can for expansion and retooling.

I give the US a lot of credit for innovation and adaptability.

But I don’t think ppl give enough respect for how hard it is to start up manufacturing, whether greenfield or brownfield. Some points:
- buildings take years to plan/fund/build, especially a manufacturing plant. Sure China can build of faster…does anyone want to work in or near an “overnight” Chinese built factory? Or work for Chinese wages? Not bashing China, but it’s a well documented reality
-machines and tooling: assembly lines also take substantial time to build, and not all that equipment is from the US. Does anyone think we’ll get screaming deals from Japan, Germany or other robotics manufacturers NOW?
- recent examples of pretty-fast setups (Tesla and Rivian) benefited IMMENSELY from taking over former auto plants (Tesla in NUMMI; Rivian from Mitsubishi). Even then it was years before both companies got up and running.
- people. What’s the unemployment rate, are there people lining up for these jobs? Qualified and trained? That takes time and money. I’m sure there’ll be bodies for assembly line work but specialist trades skills take time. A lot of expertise has been lost over the decades.
- folks seem to forget that many manufacturing jobs have been unionized. Do you think that will fly for large new plants? (I personally hope so but that’s me; I’m also a realist).
-

Another rant:
- tariffs were initially about border crossing/fentanyl. NOW it’s about unfair trade/brinfinf manufacturing back? Make up your f’n mind. But I digress.

 

[GregBC]

Personally I would love to see more manufacturing in the US (well, North America anyway). More manufacturing here has a lower carbon footprint.

But reality right now is almost every small manufacturer goes to China. There’s lots of stories out there; one was Alan Cook (Apple) or Steve Jobs telling a story where they woke up a whole shift of engineers to come in to fix some minor thing. You’ve probably heard of the stories about FoxConn (Taiwan but similar stories can be found throughout China).

Do I hate tariffs? Not fully - I think they make sense to protect certain industries, especially strategic ones (ie steel). What I think is a TERRIBLE idea and brutal for all of us peasants making less than $1M or so a year is how it was done. It not only spits in the face of long-standing allies but spits in the face of everyone who’s living paycheck to paycheck or even just trying to get a little ahead.

An earlier post said it better than me: it’s not TRULY to bring back manufacturing or protect you and me. It’s a MAJOR disruption especially to lower and middle income families to sew discontent and chaos with ulterior motives that aren’t 100% clear (plenty of YT theories out there, pick one at your leisure).

My final thought: be kind and have empathy with each other: the world is pretty crap and we need to take care of neighbours.

 

[HammaMan]

These times are where the lower middle class can make their money. Performance based compensation is key, as are those looking to maximize rewards. 8-4/9-5 / 5 days a week is rookie shit. Grind or be left behind.
You accelerate with 12hr days at least 6 days a week. An automotive plant can go from breaking ground to production in 10 months. Unions and bureaucrats will try to turn it into 3 years. Mediocrity is a choice.

 

[Hullguy]

These times are where the lower middle class can make their money. Performance based compensation is key, as are those looking to maximize rewards. 8-4/9-5 / 5 days a week is rookie shit. Grind or be left behind.
You accelerate with 12hr days at least 6 days a week. An automotive plant can go from breaking ground to production in 10 months. Unions and bureaucrats will try to turn it into 3 years. Mediocrity is a choice.

Are you taking into account permitting time, time to upgrade infrastructure, planning, review and changes to architecture plans, bidding, and time to get critical parts for electrical, building steel, plumbing, etc, ordered, built and delivered?

 

[Polo08816]

Tank that shit!

 

[National Superbike]

Yeah, it took approx. 5 minutes for people using simple math to deduce where the "Tariffs Charged to the U.S.A. (%)" to determine exactly where these figures came from. The figures are not tariffs at all, these are literally just: foreign country surplus or deficit / US surplus or deficit. As a very easy example, South Korea not only doesn't levy tariffs at all but they actually have a free trade agreement with the US. So these reciprocal US tariffs are only being applied because US products don't sell well in some countries. Oh, and a few of these places are uninhabited remote islands, though I did read that Heard and McDonald Islands has a few penguins. In any case, really unfortunate all this crap is happening.

This is a good article explaining how they came up with the tariffs and why they are generally a bad idea. It isn't what they are claiming or what people think. It is a tax that will be paid by either the consumer or company making/importing the product.
https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-reciprocal-tariffs-calculations/

 

[HammaMan]

Are you taking into account permitting time, time to upgrade infrastructure, planning, review and changes to architecture plans, bidding, and time to get critical parts for electrical, building steel, plumbing, etc, ordered, built and delivered?

Do it all at the same time. Stop accepting mediocrity

 

[GregBC]

Are you taking into account permitting time, time to upgrade infrastructure, planning, review and changes to architecture plans, bidding, and time to get critical parts for electrical, building steel, plumbing, etc, ordered, built and delivered?

Definitely not. The idea of “shovel ready” manufacturing plants plans/materials just waiting around ready to execute is unrealistic.
Back in the day, say WW2 era, it happened. It wasn’t all roses and butterflies, btw: lots of graft, misuse of funds, shoddy deals, etc. The plants were FAR less complex, and the expertise was far greater. It’s a rare book but a great read is by Edward Ellsberg “Under the Red Sun.” The dude stood up a shipyard with a handful of ship repair superintendents. Pretty incredible read and if you find yourself with romantic notions of how WW2 was all unified and patriotic, it’ll be very enlightening otherwise. Ellsberg is a USN diver legend, recovering the S-51, numerous sunken ships in WW2, and helping setup the Mulberry Harbor after D-day. I’d take his word over most.

Anyways…if folks like Hammaman want to grind 6d/wk, 10yrs/day, well good on ya. Entrepreneurship is always an open door to give a go. Take the risk, reap the rewards.

But demanding EVERYONE needs to commit to that in 2025, when the world is not at war, is ridiculous. Think long and hard about the last times society worked that hard and what society/daily life looked like for the general population. Lots of ppl disparaging unions but I’d argue the combo of unions, manufacturing jobs, and post-WW2 world situation setup the US for the boom that carried it well into the 70’s and set the foundation for the US global position. Ppl weren’t generally grinding 6/10’s after the war. They had time and money, which created leisure opportunities, further spurning new growth industries. (unions are by no means perfect, and some were quite a hindrance during the war effort too… truth is simply not B&W)

Kinda off-topic now. But back to the tariffs: the notion that they HAVE to be done as they were just done is simply false. It’s an unnecessary additional stressor and, relating back to climate, deeply ironic that so many people are supporting tariffs when “carbon tax” was so anathema to so many of the current tariff supporters (tho their effects on the consumer could be broadly similar if applied in a similar manner).

And meanwhile, related to this forum: businesses that rely on 1/2T trucks now have to figure out how to make do with older ones or forward the higher cost of them to clients. Everyone here already complains about the rising costs of trucks, so I struggle to understand why tariffs would be “ok” to anyone (trucks already have a lot of protection , hence why Tundras are also built in the US).

 

[HammaMan]

Guess oil is a known quantity going forward. US already hit peak oil, China is expecting contraction going forward

 

[Larrymoe]

Not related but I was watching a news report about tariffs and they said "US automaker Stellantis".

Ummmm.....

 

[HammaMan]

Anyways…if folks like Hammaman want to grind 6d/wk, 10yrs/day, well good on ya. Entrepreneurship is always an open door to give a go. Take the risk, reap the rewards.

But demanding EVERYONE needs to commit to that in 2025, when the world is not at war, is ridiculous. Think long and hard about the last times society worked that hard and what society/daily life looked like for the general population. Lots of ppl disparaging unions but I’d argue the combo of unions, manufacturing jobs, and post-WW2 world situation setup the US for the boom that carried it well into the 70’s and set the foundation for the US global position. Ppl weren’t generally grinding 6/10’s after the war. They had time and money, which created leisure opportunities, further spurning new growth industries. (unions are by no means perfect, and some were quite a hindrance during the war effort too… truth is simply not B&W)

Raising no income tax below 100k (strictly limited to US citizens) combined with the possibility of 72hr work weeks especially when backed by tariff 'incentivized/insured" buildout would see an entirely new class of upward mobility. BUT, it must be backed 100% by e-verify. All other labor not backed by e-verify or visa based income is taxed at current levels. Child tax credit also only applicable to US citizen HoH.

No tax on tips/OT is misguided as it simply creates a tax loophole for many to aspire towards.

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