A break down of potential future tariffs.

[Buyer2021]

come back when your 401k takes a 23% hit like Biden did to mine.

Hmmm, for the period of 1/20/2021 to 1/20/2025 (Biden term) my 401k had an annualized ROR of +13.19%, cumulative ROR of +64.17%.

For 1/20/2025 to this morning 4/3/2025 (current Trump term) the cumulative ROR is -9.14%

I've been retired since 2008, no contributions or withdrawals from my 401k during the period in question. The account has been invested in a Vanguard Institutional Index Fund for the entire period in question.

Just reporting the facts of my case, FYI. Obviously, 'YMMV'.

(past performance is not indicative of future results )

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[Graygoose2021]

Hmmm, for the period of 1/20/2021 to 1/20/2025 (Biden term) my 401k had an annualized ROR of +13.19%, cumulative ROR of +64.17%.

For 1/20/2025 to this morning 4/3/2025 (current Trump term) the cumulative ROR is -9.14%

I've been retired since 1995, no contributions or withdrawals from my 401k during the period in question. The account has been primarily invested in a Vanguard Institutional Index fund for the entire period in question.

Just reporting the facts of my case, FYI. Obviously, 'YMMV'.

(past performance is not indicative of future results )

As your aware, there are good times and bad times. Lets say if we do get the government spending down, stocks go up as in the future we have more exporting of our US made goods, energy independent, I think your 401k will flourish. Hard to compare one snap shot in time versus another. A lot of changes since 2021.

 

[ptr0687]

Keeping my 2021. If its too expensive to buy something, I don't buy it.

Hell yeah. I LOVE my 2021 despite a couple quirks she has. Plan on keeping her for as long as I possibly can. Thanks to COVID she doesn't have auto start/stop so she just runs which I like. She also has a keypad!!

 

[Buyer2021]

As your aware, there are good times and bad times. Lets say if we do get the government spending down, stocks go up as in the future we have more exporting of our US made goods, energy independent, I think your 401k will flourish.

Your prediction may be correct, it's obviously the long-term scenario that the admin is banking on.

I think much will depend on the relative stability and predictability of many factors (such as tariff rates) necessary for effective long-term business planning.

IMO if the admin doesn't settle on a set of whatever tariff rates and convince the business sector (and Wall St) that those rates will indeed be relatively stable for a long-term, then I fear businesses and industries will not be able to make the long-term changes needed to realize the scenario you and the admin envision.

I'm not predicting failure or success, I'm just 'along for the ride' like most folks, doing what I can to hedge for either eventuality. Wishing all the best of luck. ?

 

[Graygoose2021]

Hell yeah. I LOVE my 2021 despite a couple quirks she has. Plan on keeping her for as long as I possibly can. Thanks to COVID she doesn't have auto start/stop so she just runs which I like. She also has a keypad!!

same, they gave me $50 to take off ASS. Id given 5x that to keep it off

 

[Kodiak]

Trump did tariff's his first 4 years and nothing bad happened. The media is telling people to be mad about it and the sheep are falling in line. come back when your 401k takes a 23% hit like Biden did to mine.

1/27/2021 Dow = 30,303
1/31/2025 Dow = 44,544

If your investments during this period of time lost 23% you really need to do some investment evaluation. It is not Bidens fault your investments sucked.

 

[powerboatr]

this link shows the list
its not near as bad as we are lead to believe.
some countries you ask..why would we buy anything from them...
?
https://www.newsweek.com/trump-reciprocal-tariff-chart-2054514

Country	Tariffs Charged to the U.S.A. (%)	U.S.A. Discounted Reciprocal Tariffs (%)
China	67	34
European Union	39	20
Vietnam	90	46
Taiwan	64	32
Japan	46	24
India	52	26
South Korea	50	25
Thailand	72	36
Switzerland	61	31
Indonesia	64	32
Malaysia	47	24
Cambodia	97	49
United Kingdom	10	10
South Africa	60	30
Brazil	10	10
Bangladesh	74	37
Singapore	10	10
Israel	33	17
Philippines	34	17
Chile	10	10
Australia	10	10
Pakistan	58	29
Turkey	10	10
Sri Lanka	88	44
Colombia	10	10
Peru	10	10
Nicaragua	36	18
Norway	30	15
Costa Rica	17	10
Jordan	40	20
Dominican Republic	10	10
United Arab Emirates	10	10
New Zealand	20	10
Argentina	10	10
Ecuador	12	10
Guatemala	10	10
Honduras	10	10
Madagascar	93	47
Myanmar (Burma)	88	44
Tunisia	55	28
Kazakhstan	54	27
Serbia	74	37
Egypt	10	10
Saudi Arabia	10	10
El Salvador	10	10
Côte d'Ivoire	41	21
Laos	95	48
Botswana	74	37
Trinidad and Tobago	12	10
Morocco	10	10
Papua New Guinea	15	10
Malawi	34	17
Liberia	10	10
British Virgin Islands	10	10
Afghanistan	49	10
Zimbabwe	35	18
Benin	10	10
Barbados	10	10
Monaco	10	10
Syria	81	41
Uzbekistan	10	10
Republic of the Congo	10	10
Djibouti	10	10
French Polynesia	10	10
Cayman Islands	10	10
Kosovo	10	10
Curaçao	10	10
Vanuatu	44	22
Rwanda	10	10
Sierra Leone	10	10
Mongolia	10	10
San Marino	10	10
Antigua and Barbuda	10	10
Bermuda	10	10
Eswatini	10	10
Marshall Islands	10	10
Saint Pierre and Miquelon	99	50
Saint Kitts and Nevis	10	10
Turkmenistan	10	10
Grenada	10	10
Sudan	10	10
Turks and Caicos Islands	10	10
Aruba	10	10
Montenegro	10	10
Saint Helena	15	10
Kyrgyzstan	10	10
Yemen	10	10
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	10	10
Niger	10	10
Saint Lucia	10	10
Nauru	59	30
Equatorial Guinea	25	13
Iran	10	10
Libya	61	31
Samoa	10	10
Guinea	10	10
Timor-Leste	10	10
Montserrat	10	10
Chad	26	13
Mali	10	10
Algeria	59	30
Oman	10	10
Uruguay	10	10
Bahamas	10	10
Lesotho	99	50
Ukraine	10	10
Bahrain	10	10
Qatar	10	10
Mauritius	80	40
Fiji	63	32
Iceland	10	10
Kenya	10	10
Liechtenstein	73	37
Guyana	76	38
Haiti	10	10
Bosnia and Herzegovina	70	35
Nigeria	27	14
Namibia	42	21
Brunei	47	24
Bolivia	20	10
Panama	10	10
Venezuela	29	15
North Macedonia	65	33
Ethiopia	10	10
Ghana	17	10
Moldova	61	31
Angola	63	32
Democratic Republic of the Congo	22	11
Jamaica	10	10
Mozambique	31	16
Paraguay	10	10
Zambia	33	17
Lebanon	10	10
Tanzania	10	10
Iraq	78	39
Georgia	10	10
Senegal	10	10
Azerbaijan	10	10
Cameroon	22	11
Uganda	20	10
Albania	10	10
Armenia	10	10
Nepal	10	10
Sint Maarten	10	10
Falkland Islands	82	41
Gabon	10	10
Kuwait	10	10
Togo	10	10
Suriname	10	10
Belize	10	10
Maldives	10	10
Tajikistan	10	10
Cabo Verde	10	10
Burundi	10	10
Guadeloupe	10	10
Bhutan	10	10
Martinique	10	10
Tonga	10	10
Mauritania	10	10
Dominica	10	10
Micronesia	10	10
Gambia	10	10
French Guiana	10	10
Christmas Island	10	10
Andorra	10	10
Central African Republic	10	10
Solomon Islands	10	10
Mayotte	10	10
Anguilla	10	10
Cocos (Keeling) Islands	10	10
Eritrea	10	10
Cook Islands	10	10
South Sudan	10	10
Comoros	10	10
Kiribati	10	10
Sao Tome and Principe	10	10
Norfolk Island	58	29
Gibraltar	10	10
Tuvalu	10	10
British Indian Ocean Territory	10	10
Tokelau	10	10
Guinea-Bissau	10	10
Svalbard and Jan Mayen	10	10
Heard and McDonald Islands	10	10
Reunion	73	37

 

[JohnMcClane]

1/27/2021 Dow = 30,303
1/31/2025 Dow = 44,544

If your investments during this period of time lost 23% you really need to do some investment evaluation. It is not Bidens fault your investments sucked.

Gas prices are creeping up, I’m sure we’ll see Trump stickers on pumps pointing at prices saying “I did that” right?!?!

 

[Graygoose2021]

Gas prices are creeping up, I’m sure we’ll see Trump stickers on pumps pointing at prices saying “I did that” right?!?!

Sure, if we can add "border is secure for real this time".. if we're going to add claims, we must also lay credits when credit is due.

 

[Graygoose2021]

Good post I read a couple hours ago. makes sense.

 

[Groovicles]

this link shows the list
its not near as bad as we are lead to believe.
some countries you ask..why would we buy anything from them...
?
https://www.newsweek.com/trump-reciprocal-tariff-chart-2054514

Country	Tariffs Charged to the U.S.A. (%)	U.S.A. Discounted Reciprocal Tariffs (%)
China	67	34
European Union	39	20
Vietnam	90	46
Taiwan	64	32
Japan	46	24
India	52	26
South Korea	50	25
Thailand	72	36
Switzerland	61	31
Indonesia	64	32
Malaysia	47	24
Cambodia	97	49
United Kingdom	10	10
South Africa	60	30
Brazil	10	10
Bangladesh	74	37
Singapore	10	10
Israel	33	17
Philippines	34	17
Chile	10	10
Australia	10	10
Pakistan	58	29
Turkey	10	10
Sri Lanka	88	44
Colombia	10	10
Peru	10	10
Nicaragua	36	18
Norway	30	15
Costa Rica	17	10
Jordan	40	20
Dominican Republic	10	10
United Arab Emirates	10	10
New Zealand	20	10
Argentina	10	10
Ecuador	12	10
Guatemala	10	10
Honduras	10	10
Madagascar	93	47
Myanmar (Burma)	88	44
Tunisia	55	28
Kazakhstan	54	27
Serbia	74	37
Egypt	10	10
Saudi Arabia	10	10
El Salvador	10	10
Côte d'Ivoire	41	21
Laos	95	48
Botswana	74	37
Trinidad and Tobago	12	10
Morocco	10	10
Papua New Guinea	15	10
Malawi	34	17
Liberia	10	10
British Virgin Islands	10	10
Afghanistan	49	10
Zimbabwe	35	18
Benin	10	10
Barbados	10	10
Monaco	10	10
Syria	81	41
Uzbekistan	10	10
Republic of the Congo	10	10
Djibouti	10	10
French Polynesia	10	10
Cayman Islands	10	10
Kosovo	10	10
Curaçao	10	10
Vanuatu	44	22
Rwanda	10	10
Sierra Leone	10	10
Mongolia	10	10
San Marino	10	10
Antigua and Barbuda	10	10
Bermuda	10	10
Eswatini	10	10
Marshall Islands	10	10
Saint Pierre and Miquelon	99	50
Saint Kitts and Nevis	10	10
Turkmenistan	10	10
Grenada	10	10
Sudan	10	10
Turks and Caicos Islands	10	10
Aruba	10	10
Montenegro	10	10
Saint Helena	15	10
Kyrgyzstan	10	10
Yemen	10	10
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	10	10
Niger	10	10
Saint Lucia	10	10
Nauru	59	30
Equatorial Guinea	25	13
Iran	10	10
Libya	61	31
Samoa	10	10
Guinea	10	10
Timor-Leste	10	10
Montserrat	10	10
Chad	26	13
Mali	10	10
Algeria	59	30
Oman	10	10
Uruguay	10	10
Bahamas	10	10
Lesotho	99	50
Ukraine	10	10
Bahrain	10	10
Qatar	10	10
Mauritius	80	40
Fiji	63	32
Iceland	10	10
Kenya	10	10
Liechtenstein	73	37
Guyana	76	38
Haiti	10	10
Bosnia and Herzegovina	70	35
Nigeria	27	14
Namibia	42	21
Brunei	47	24
Bolivia	20	10
Panama	10	10
Venezuela	29	15
North Macedonia	65	33
Ethiopia	10	10
Ghana	17	10
Moldova	61	31
Angola	63	32
Democratic Republic of the Congo	22	11
Jamaica	10	10
Mozambique	31	16
Paraguay	10	10
Zambia	33	17
Lebanon	10	10
Tanzania	10	10
Iraq	78	39
Georgia	10	10
Senegal	10	10
Azerbaijan	10	10
Cameroon	22	11
Uganda	20	10
Albania	10	10
Armenia	10	10
Nepal	10	10
Sint Maarten	10	10
Falkland Islands	82	41
Gabon	10	10
Kuwait	10	10
Togo	10	10
Suriname	10	10
Belize	10	10
Maldives	10	10
Tajikistan	10	10
Cabo Verde	10	10
Burundi	10	10
Guadeloupe	10	10
Bhutan	10	10
Martinique	10	10
Tonga	10	10
Mauritania	10	10
Dominica	10	10
Micronesia	10	10
Gambia	10	10
French Guiana	10	10
Christmas Island	10	10
Andorra	10	10
Central African Republic	10	10
Solomon Islands	10	10
Mayotte	10	10
Anguilla	10	10
Cocos (Keeling) Islands	10	10
Eritrea	10	10
Cook Islands	10	10
South Sudan	10	10
Comoros	10	10
Kiribati	10	10
Sao Tome and Principe	10	10
Norfolk Island	58	29
Gibraltar	10	10
Tuvalu	10	10
British Indian Ocean Territory	10	10
Tokelau	10	10
Guinea-Bissau	10	10
Svalbard and Jan Mayen	10	10
Heard and McDonald Islands	10	10
Reunion	73	37

Yeah, it took approx. 5 minutes for people using simple math to deduce where the "Tariffs Charged to the U.S.A. (%)" to determine exactly where these figures came from. The figures are not tariffs at all, these are literally just: foreign country surplus or deficit / US surplus or deficit. As a very easy example, South Korea not only doesn't levy tariffs at all but they actually have a free trade agreement with the US. So these reciprocal US tariffs are only being applied because US products don't sell well in some countries. Oh, and a few of these places are uninhabited remote islands, though I did read that Heard and McDonald Islands has a few penguins. In any case, really unfortunate all this crap is happening.

 

[HammaMan]

Yeah, it took approx. 5 minutes for people using simple math to deduce where the "Tariffs Charged to the U.S.A. (%)" to determine exactly where these figures came from. The figures are not tariffs at all, these are literally just: foreign country surplus or deficit / US surplus or deficit. As a very easy example, South Korea not only doesn't levy tariffs at all but they actually have a free trade agreement with the US. So these reciprocal US tariffs are only being applied because US products don't sell well in some countries. Oh, and a few of these places are uninhabited remote islands, though I did read that Heard and McDonald Islands has a few penguins. In any case, really unfortunate all this crap is happening.

Is it sad that I pay enough attention to information feeds to know the origin of yours
Uninhabited isn't exactly the same of a lack of commerce or investment, granted it's trivial.

China has lost its labor advantage and the lack of US incorporation of automation in factories has cost us our competitive edge. There's a real chance here for a rebirth of new industry using Ai and automation -- todays, not tomorrows. For all of musk's genius in adoption of new technologies and vertical integration, it becomes a conflict of interest for industry at large. His days are numbered as well as he's limited to 130 days or so in his current role. Silicon valley guys working on modernizing govt computer systems will get their part worked out but we need a general manufacturing visionary for industry at large.

Nvidia's ai software can build factories overnight and simulate years worth of operation in a day. Employees can use VR to learn their tasks as the factory is built. I'm not seeing any headway on this approach as of yet. Established companies bringing in automation doesn't even happen at 5%/yr. Need ai/automation czar w/ a task force to bring businesses up to the cutting edge. Tariff funds should insure such efforts due to general instability/insecurities around the current transition.

 

[JohnMcClane]

Sure, if we can add "border is secure for real this time".. if we're going to add claims, we must also lay credits when credit is due.

I'm not naive enough to think the President has that large of an impact on gas prices.

Did we give the border security speech in front of a giant "Mission Accomplished" banner on an aircraft carrier? Because if we didn't it's definitely not secure.

 

[HammaMan]

I'm not naive enough to think the President has that large of an impact on gas prices.

Did we give the border security speech in front of a giant "Mission Accomplished" banner on an aircraft carrier? Because if we didn't it's definitely not secure.

I hear the russians have discounted crude. Gas prices have been falling, but that won't stop the speculators like a solid supply of new oil avenues will. They usually start refinery maintenance just in time for a summer price hike.

 

[JohnMcClane]

I hear the russians have discounted crude. Gas prices have been falling, but that won't stop the speculators like a solid supply of new oil avenues will. They usually start refinery maintenance just in time for a summer price hike.

Summer price hike is inevitable, China trying to invade Taiwan will fly great cover for raising prices to or above $4 a gallon again.

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