New over the top chinese PHEV

[HammaMan]

Based on? Have you seen one in person? Driven it?

They're rapidly iterating in an auto market TWICE the size of the US (plus they have loads of exports). All of these over the top features -- chinese buyers demand the latest/greatest (thus over-the-top vehicles) and they gravitate towards the better products (they're not fans of cheap shit either). 100% capitalist tactics at work. BYD has sacrificed margins for growth and increased net profit by 73% YoY while increasing sales 43% during that same time.

China dominates in solar, batteries, EVs, and PHEVs because 1) they're actually building shit loads of them and 2) there's massive demand for them. Crazy, you can get really good at something when you build a lot of it and your customers are demanding newer, more extravagant features. The market is pretty brutal too. 2019 they had 500 EV manufactures. 90% of them are now extinct and a handful that made the right moves dominate the region and soon the world. Also, they import over 50% of their hydrocarbons so NEV (new energy vehicles) is about making themselves resilient long-term, while using ALL forms of energy to the fullest right now (because a blockade will shut down most of their current economic activity).

Legacy auto as they currently stand have no future, the sooner the pain comes, the quicker we can get on with the restructuring and streamlining them, preferably in R2W states to alleviate the anchors that will undoubtedly try and reattach themselves. The SE's GDP is now greater than that of the NE's.

Ford and GM...

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[turbopilot]

China dominates in solar, batteries, EVs, and PHEVs because 1) they're actually building shit loads of them and 2) there's massive demand for them. Crazy, you can get really good at something when you build a lot of it and your customers are demanding newer, more extravagant features. The market is pretty brutal too. 2019 they had 500 EV manufactures. 90% of them are now extinct and a handful that made the right moves dominate the region and soon the world. Also, they import over 50% of their hydrocarbons so NEV (new energy vehicles) is about making themselves resilient long-term, while using ALL forms of energy to the fullest right now (because a blockade will shut down most of their current economic activity).

Going to make some folks mad but in many ways this communist country is more capitalistic than we are now. They are beating us at our game in many areas. We started giving away our manufacturing base in the 1980's in return for cheap stuff. Now we have to play catch up. It will be painful.

 

[HammaMan]

Going to make some folks mad but in many ways this communist country is more capitalistic than we are now. They are beating us at our game in many areas. We started giving away our manufacturing base in the 1980's in return for cheap stuff. Now we have to play catch up. It will be painful.

2016 was the first warning for US producers offshoring with tariff warnings. In 2020 ford started MME production in MX anyway. There will be an adjustment period, but it'll more than workout in the end. The tariff strategy would be wiser if used to offset any hurdles to reshoring combined with state incentives that have always been on the table. Even better if they tie it back into educational/vocational programs like Kia and similar have done. It needs to be done, and it won't be comfortable at first. Not what people want to hear, but it needs to be done and the longer it's delayed, the more painful it becomes.

EU already coming around on their tariffs they've been choking US auto with. I'm not okay with equal, I want at least 4 years of inverse tariffs to get US industry back up to speed. Might be unpopular with some but that's okay, revisit in 4 years once it concludes and the progress made won't even be arguable. Current EU tariffs for cars is 10%, for vehicles like vans and F150s it's 22%. Time to flip those for at least 4 years before they go to ~2.5% (though US has always imposed the 25% 'chicken tax' on such vehicle globally since the 60s and needs re-evaluated under the same)

 

[Dakar09]

To the OP, you don't honestly believe the claims and specs of something coming outnof China. They lie about everything and steal tech from everyone, then say their product is better than everything else. This thing is likely junk, imo.

If it looks too good to be true, it usually is.

 

[HammaMan]

To the OP, you don't honestly believe the claims and specs of something coming outnof China. They lie about everything and steal tech from everyone, then say their product is better than everything else. This thing is likely junk, imo.

If it looks too good to be true, it usually is.

Ignore it to your peril. Lynk & Co is a joint venture of Geely and Zeeker who own Volvo and Polestar among other brands. Only fools are sleeping on china's threat. What took the US 75 years to become post WW2 -- China has achieved parity in a lot aspects, superiority in others, since y2k (arguably it's really only occurred in the last 20 years). No matter what industry you're in, china is competing against you if you understand it or not. They're clever, have few morals, and they're greedy -- it's in the culture. The cheap shit comes from greed, not lack of capability.

If the average household's general consumer goods weren't over 50% sourced (on value) from china, I'd be very surprised. "Hahaha china is junk" yet they make just about everything, it was inevitable for breakouts to occur and them be able to produce quality stuff too. They are #1 by a large margin in designing and manufacturing advanced lithium (and sodium) chemistries.

In 2024 the US produced 10.6 million total vehicles.
China produced 23.5 million of which 11.9 million were NEVs (EV and Hybrid combined group)

Average vehicle production by decade

Year	U.S. Production	China Production
1950	8.0 million	0
1960	7.9 million	20,000
1970	8.2 million	80,000
1980	8.0 million	220,000
1990	9.8 million	510,000
2000	12.8 million	2.1 million
2010	7.8 million	18.3 million
2020	8.8 million	25.2 million
2024	10.6 million	23.5 million

 

[jcaspar]

As everything moved to china, especially electronics, intermediaries are in-country. If you're manufacturing complex devices with dozens of dependencies like advanced electronics, a lot of which are in a single region, supply chains are much easier to deal with. They also all take off a month for chinese new year where very little activity takes place usually impacting workflow for about 6 weeks.

"Slave labor" is a great talking point, but it's a grossly incorrect statement. Chinese workers are paid more than mexican workers, yet nobody calls mexican manufacturers "slave labor". Indian and other asian countries pay even less, do you call them slave labor? I haven't seen it. China has completely lost its labor cost competition vs competing nations, even to the one south of the US border. The only reason to continue the trend now is because china has the plants and knowhow.

The biggest threat to moving to china is the IP transfer that takes place. The only company that has been able to not take that hit was tesla, and the reason for that is because they trained an army of workers on how to build vehicles and those workers and processes/lessons have slowly migrated out to their industries at large giving them a huge springboard for launching their current automotive industry off of. The only ones NOT taking advantage of those processes and techniques are US legacy auto.

When I said slave labor I meant slave labor. This is from the US State Department:
https://www.state.gov/forced-labor-in-chinas-xinjiang-region/

You seem like a NY Times person. Here it their discussion of slave labor in China:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/08/business/economy/china-forced-labor.html

Foxconn is infamous for their expolitation
https://borgenproject.org/labor-exploitation-at-foxconn-china/

 

[UGADawg96]

When I was at CES in January, there were a lot of Chinese companies with clones of basic consumer electronics that you see from the name brands. When they migrate/evolve from stealing and reverse engineering to innovating, they could be dangerous. I think what @HammaMan is saying is that we all think they are still doing the first one, but they have been doing the second one recently and no one is really paying attention to that threat, especially US domestic car manufacturers.

 

[Dakar09]

@HammaMan I'm not ignoring it. I'm saying it's over-exaggerated junk. I don't underestimate China at all, I just think most of what they make is junk and won't last. Like those mega-cities they keep building but can't populate and all those roads that no one is driving on. They are boisterous and show-boating but behind the facade are on very shakey ground.

Fun fact, I was a Volvo guy for a long time. Even built an old Volvo to race in rallies and had Polestar tunes on a few newer one (that's what they did before they went all electric). When I heard Geely bought them, I got worried. Was all set to buy a new XC90 a few years ago but what a dismal car performance wise. Nothing they donis exciting and the cars have been relegated to soccer moms and people who really don't know anything about what they are driving. They ruined Volvo for many of us long-time loyalists.

 

[Larrymoe]

No matter what industry you're in, china is competing against you if you understand it or not. They're clever, have few morals, and they're greedy -- it's in the culture. The cheap shit comes from greed, not lack of capability.

And yet, you continue to breathlessly cheerlead everything they do. Why?

I would have never heard of these cars if you weren't giving us nearly weekly updates on them. Ignore them at my peril? What peril?

 

[HammaMan]

And yet, you continue to breathlessly cheerlead everything they do. Why?

I would have never heard of these cars if you weren't giving us nearly weekly updates on them. Ignore them at my peril? What peril?

I give data points and at times my opinion on the data point. At the same time I suggest fast, painful reshoring measures ignoring consumer sentiment and pretty much any opposing opinion on the matter. China is going to move on taiwan, they've said they're going to reunify, they've been building large numbers of implements of war to do it. There's no reason to not believe them. 90% of the world's most advanced semiconductors are made in TW.

When they move on taiwan, we're likely going to level those plants containing ASML's lithography machines vs letting china try and operate them. In very short order 90% of the world's most advanced semiconductors and scores of other computer related product sourcing is just gone. Near overnight tech stagnation for around 3-6 years to varying degrees, plus low end semiconductors used in pretty much everything else from vehicles to just about everything else just gone.

The response to their actions will dictate just how much more they push out and what allies are fickle. A blockade is likely and its covid shortages on steroids for nations that push back against them. Depending on the efficacy of the blockade, which I believe will be very detrimental, even the fickle allies gain nothing as they move to a wartime economy. During Trump's last term we did something very strange. We put tactical warheads in some of our nuclear missile sub's tubes. Typically each warhead is 10-20x the power of the Nagasaki device -- these tactical warheads are 1/4 as powerful, and each missile can deliver up to 12 of them. They're perfect for taking out man made islands w/ minimal downstream effects typically associated with the use of nukes -- a likely response to the sinking of a capital ship -- the more formidable of a foe they present, the higher the chances such a weapon is used.

Or they could eventually determine the cost to be too high (Russia miscalculated and they share similar issues at the top of the leadership being surrounded by yes-men). While 2027/28 is their stated timeframe, spring of 2029 is when I'd move especially if the incoming president is of the other party and sacks the typical command structure. Don't underestimate the reach of their soft power, or rule out an intentional release of a bug.

I can both simultaneously appreciate an advanced product while also understanding the risks the govt from its country of origin represents. Chinese PHEVs including trucks are already openly for sale in AU and other western markets offering better standard features for 30-40% less cost. You can go follow YT channels from owners that have been putting these things through their paces for months essentially tortue testing them. If I was in AU with their options, I wouldn't be buying a ford all things considered as of today. Ford's latest ranger offering is overpriced and rather limp in comparison. They're in MX and south america too, and you can use auto translate on YT vids.

 

[Snakebitten]

I don't see the cheerleading.
It's emotionless delivery of factual information, combined with his personal opinion. But far from cheerleading.

The only cheerleading is him begging/(cheering(?)) for the good Ole USA to wake up and take the necessary medicine.

 

[Suns_PSD]

I give data points and at times my opinion on the data point. At the same time I suggest fast, painful reshoring measures ignoring consumer sentiment and pretty much any opposing opinion on the matter. China is going to move on taiwan, they've said they're going to reunify, they've been building large numbers of implements of war to do it. There's no reason to not believe them. 90% of the world's most advanced semiconductors are made in TW.

When they move on taiwan, we're likely going to level those plants containing ASML's lithography machines vs letting china try and operate them. In very short order 90% of the world's most advanced semiconductors and scores of other computer related product sourcing is just gone. Near overnight tech stagnation for around 3-6 years to varying degrees, plus low end semiconductors used in pretty much everything else from vehicles to just about everything else just gone.

The response to their actions will dictate just how much more they push out and what allies are fickle. A blockade is likely and its covid shortages on steroids for nations that push back against them. Depending on the efficacy of the blockade, which I believe will be very detrimental, even the fickle allies gain nothing as they move to a wartime economy. During Trump's last term we did something very strange. We put tactical warheads in some of our nuclear missile sub's tubes. Typically each warhead is 10-20x the power of the Nagasaki device -- these tactical warheads are 1/4 as powerful, and each missile can deliver up to 12 of them. They're perfect for taking out man made islands w/ minimal downstream effects typically associated with the use of nukes -- a likely response to the sinking of a capital ship -- the more formidable of a foe they present, the higher the chances such a weapon is used.

Or they could eventually determine the cost to be too high (Russia miscalculated and they share similar issues at the top of the leadership being surrounded by yes-men). While 2027/28 is their stated timeframe, spring of 2029 is when I'd move especially if the incoming president is of the other party and sacks the typical command structure. Don't underestimate the reach of their soft power, or rule out an intentional release of a bug.

I can both simultaneously appreciate an advanced product while also understanding the risks the govt from its country of origin represents. Chinese PHEVs including trucks are already openly for sale in AU and other western markets offering better standard features for 30-40% less cost. You can go follow YT channels from owners that have been putting these things through their paces for months essentially tortue testing them. If I was in AU with their options, I wouldn't be buying a ford all things considered as of today. Ford's latest ranger offering is overpriced and rather limp in comparison. They're in MX and south america too, and you can use auto translate on YT vids.

Biden ends slog on semiconductor bill with signature - POLITICO

Biden signs law allowing CHIPS Act projects to forgo environmental review | Manufacturing Dive

Trump wants to kill $52.7 billion semiconductor chips subsidy law

 

[JohnMcClane]

 

[HammaMan]

Biden ends slog on semiconductor bill with signature - POLITICO

Biden signs law allowing CHIPS Act projects to forgo environmental review | Manufacturing Dive

Trump wants to kill $52.7 billion semiconductor chips subsidy law

Intel is using 8.5bil of that $ to bolster their $14bil stock buyback. There's already been $350bil in private funding pledged. $20bil of the g00berment funding goes into DOD/DOE/NSF, none of which produce advanced silicon. In-fact the govt is so far behind the private sector, the F35's new 'brain' is an intel i7 desktop gaming processor (yes, consumer gaming CPU, not a server CPU). $20bil is a lot of money and could easily fund dozens of lower-tech fabs and manufacturers of cheaper components vs being burned.

CHIPS act, what it does vs how it's sold

The "research" funding is nebulous and structured in the typical waste/abuse fashion typical of govt spending. There's also the issue of funding advanced research of cutting edge technologies with foreign students from countries such as china and india just so they can take that knowledge back home with them (a vulnerability that needs rectified). Universities already get billions of endowments per year as is.

Having nothing to do with the CHIPS act, here's what's happened in the last 2 months.
- Apple, $500bil US investment over next 4 years expanding facilities and US manufacturing
- TSMC is investing $100bil building 5 new fabs in the US
- UAE committed to a 10-year, $1.4 trillion investment framework in the US, focusing on sectors like AI infrastructure, semiconductors, energy, and manufacturing.

 

[GypsyDanger]

Intel is using 8.5bil of that $ to bolster their $14bil stock buyback. There's already been $350bil in private funding pledged. $20bil of the g00berment funding goes into DOD/DOE/NSF, none of which produce advanced silicon. In-fact the govt is so far behind the private sector, the F35's new 'brain' is an intel i7 desktop gaming processor (yes, consumer gaming CPU, not a server CPU). $20bil is a lot of money and could easily fund dozens of lower-tech fabs and manufacturers of cheaper components vs being burned.

CHIPS act, what it does vs how it's sold

The "research" funding is nebulous and structured in the typical waste/abuse fashion typical of govt spending. There's also the issue of funding advanced research of cutting edge technologies with foreign students from countries such as china and india just so they can take that knowledge back home with them (a vulnerability that needs rectified). Universities already get billions of endowments per year as is.

Having nothing to do with the CHIPS act, here's what's happened in the last 2 months.
- Apple, $500bil US investment over next 4 years expanding facilities and US manufacturing
- TSMC is investing $100bil building 5 new fabs in the US
- UAE committed to a 10-year, $1.4 trillion investment framework in the US, focusing on sectors like AI infrastructure, semiconductors, energy, and manufacturing.

Pretty sure Apples and TSMC investments totals are tacked on to their prior investments, TSMC had increase their previous promise from 12 to 40 Bil due to the Chips act specifically. The UAE thing is interesting but that's a whole topic that I'm not getting into on here.

Regardless, I eagerly await for these things to come to fruition. I couldn't care less for paper tigers.

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