So when does the big dump begin?

[mbouck3]

This is one of the more absurd threads ever on a forum. I just traded my 12,500-mile 2021 PowerBoost King ranch F-150 two weeks ago for my 2022 Platinum Lightning. Paid MSRP for the Lightning and received $2k more than I paid for the '21 PowerBoost from the original selling dealer ($69k trade value vs $67k paid new) in May 2021 - got paid to drive it for 14 months. Same for the '19 Tesla, MX that I sold to the Ford dealer on the same day - roughly what I paid for it three years ago in 2019, with 38k miles on it.

There is no truck inventory anywhere to speak of, no discounts, many dealer markups, long waiting lists. We are not going to see any dumping for a very long time. Consumer are more flush than ever in history, and even with dipping GDP, there is more cash in the bank, a healthy job market, with a wider open-to-hire than at any time in U.S. history. Consumers are able to purchase and have the capacity, so no way this thesis is even close. I am generally a pessimistic economist, but not on this particular question. There are way too many people looking for too few vehicles. I hate to agree with leftist economists, but this is an unusual recession because despite a pullback in GDP, workers aren't participating in job losses, and incomes are going up, albeit not at the rate of inflation. Silver linings do apply in this era, at least for now. Longer term, the debt bomb is still coming...

Yes this tread does seem to be losing its focus

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[mbouck3]

While I don't necessarily disagree with much of your points, I don't believe they apply only to Ford. On this website it is ALL Ford customer experiences.
But surely you have frequented the other American built truck forums and discovered the customer confusion, constraints, supply issues.... Etc?

Ford could indeed be the most egregious example. I don't know myself. But it's not just Ford, that's for sure.

By the way, I purchased a 2021 Platinum from inventory and drove it while I ordered a 2022 to be built exactly like I wanted.

It took longer than any vehicle I have ever ordered. But Ford did email when they got my order. Emailed me when they scheduled the build. Emailed me when it was built. Emailed me when it was shipped.

What other emails should they have sent me? I guess they could have sent me some emails in between just "checking in" with me? It might have been kinda cool, I admit.

I personally think Ford is dealing with the current historically bizarre circumstances admirably in some aspects and pathetically in others. But I don't think they have it the way they want it either. I can't even imagine the logistical obstacles an assembly line like that of the F150 has been facing. Gotta be a constant struggle.

I do tend to agree with you more often than not

 

[hotrodmex]

Reposting from BlueOval:

Ford is America’s No 1 Brand In July; EV Sales Outpace Segment, F-Series No. 1 Truck; Ford Brand SUV Sales Post 70 Percent Gain; Lincoln SUVs Set July Record

https://media.ford.com/content/ford...03/ford-is-america_s-no--1-brand-in-july.html

On improved inventory flow, Ford for the second month in a row is the only major automaker to produce sales gains. Ford July sales grew 36.6 percent, vs. an industry down 10.5 percent. Ford total market share hits 13.9 percent –up 1.0 percentage point from June and 4.8 percentage points over a year-ago. Gains come from higher EV sales and share, F-Series and high-end large SUVs.

Ford Media Center_Sales_2022-07.pdf

 

[Snakebitten]

I do tend to agree with you more often than not

That could be worrisome. ?

Flattering though. Thanks!

 

[hussar1683]

PLEASE, enough with this, "But everybody else ..." Ford is being run by imbeciles, and this effects the value of your truck. Right now, Ford is tightly controlling the supply of vehicles available. They are moving to a model with the dealerships that will allow Ford to determine the sales price of their vehicles, and they are looking to cut dealers out of the financing and warranty products. Leasees of EV products will be able to purchase their vehicle at the end of the term ... because Ford wants to fill their lots instead of competing with private party sales. And Ford is forcing Lightning owners to sign a "non-compete" contract agreeing not sell their truck before 1 year of delivery.

I ask, what has Ford done for you in the last 18 months that has left you feeling satisfied and secure about your partnership with them? And on the other side, let's put this in the balance.

When you buy at the height of the market, you pay a premium. When the market normalizes and you go to trade, you are now competing with the cost of New vehicles. Let's use some current examples. We know that new car MSRPs jumped by 20% from 2019. A 2022 KR with a MSRP of $75k, no market adjustments. A 2021 with the same features, has a KBB Trade-in value of $66,220 in Excellent condition. Private party, $70,076, but that doesn't really matter. So when market's normalize in 1.5 - 2 years, and the MSRP drops 15% (not including incentives), the new MSRP for that formerly $75k KR will be $63,750.

Let's put it this way
2021 KR $66,220 (1 year depreciation, Excellent condition)
2024 KR $63,750 (15% decline in MSRP)

First of all, that 1 year old KR will not be valued at $66k. It will reflect 3 years of depreciation. So no one will want to pay more for the same truck that is 4 years old vs a new truck that is cheaper. $63,750 is your new target. In 2 years, people who financed their 21-22 trucks for more than 48 months will be UPSIDE DOWN and they will owe more than the truck is worth. And this is because of the way that Ford has run their business. Billions lost to Rivian, abusive customer service and poor quality control will unfairly lower the value of our trucks to a major extent. I firmly believe our trucks will be labeled Pandemic Trucks and have a questionable reputation, and be less marketable, just like 5.4L 3v trucks.

So, while people give Ford a pass for being sheep, Ford finds no incentive to change. 16 months later the shareholders will say, Pandemic is over. You have had since 2019 to adapt. What have you done to overcome? Supply chain has nothing to do with the decisions being flushed out from Ford Corporate. Farting sparkles and rainbows does nothing to change Ford. #FireFarley

MSRP decline is a pipe dream. You’re talking about 15% deflation which is pretty much impossible. I can defiantly see some incentives returning eventually

 

[lacartus]

There might not be a bid dump in new trucks, but there could be growing trouble in used trucks. The data from banks (delinquencies), auctions (no sales, building inventory) and car brokers (losing on flips) is starting.

 

[Zengineer]

There might not be a bid dump in new trucks, but there could be growing trouble in used trucks. The data from banks (delinquencies), auctions (no sales, building inventory) and car brokers (losing on flips) is starting.

In other words...a slow return to normal.

 

[lacartus]

In other words...a slow return to normal.

Yup, reversion to the mean can be a bitch. I've been holding off buying a used vehicle and will get much better pricing soon.

 

[Cb Mw]

Yup, revision to the mean can be a bitch. I've been holding off buying a used vehicle and will get much better pricing soon.

Used prices are the reason I bought new, and spent more than I ever planned on. Really stinks when my budgeting from a few years was wayyy off.

We need a correction.

 

[texski]

Ian, you beat me to it. We are already showing an increased trend towards repos. When that happens, increased supply in used cars, values decline. Look at new/used car prices in 2007-08. High delinquency rates forced manufacturers to lower their costs (incentives if you like), which in turn lowers used car values. We have seen a 40% increase in the price of used vehicles, and that has fueled the New Car Market ... which saw a 20% increase. And both of these have outpaced CPI at 9.1%

For those of you believe these numbers are sustainable, then you simply have not accounted for past trends. I am more comfortable with learning from the past than I am relying on "data" strung together to foster my wishes.

Bruce, why are so many kitchen tables in America whining about inflation when we are flush with cash, healthy job market, and a wider open-to-hire than at any time in U.S. history? WE may have the cash, but we are not the ones defaulting on payments and having to buy a replacement vehicle with dinged credit. I find weak legs with your glowing economic report.

As for this booming labor market, how many of those took on a 2nd job to pay for inflation related costs, like gas and food? My guess is that number is unreported.

I do however appreciate your take on dealerships. It looks like Ford studies Tesla and like a buffet, picks and chooses. Tesla started with this sales/service model, and Ford is trying to shoehorn it into historic models. Like others, I purchased with X-plan and stacked incentives because my dealer was willing to do this when 20 other dealers would not. Ford is also looking to monopolize the Ford used car market too by putting restrictions on end of term lease purchases. Ford tried to purchase dealerships in Tulsa several years ago and it was unsuccessful. While they fixed the prices on cars, people purchased out of town. The more Ford controls, the few choices we have. Bad for consumers.

HRMex, I appreciate you citing sources, but Ford Marketing?! There is just so much that is glossed over in the press release that is in response to major issues being reported about Ford, like worst initial quality in 20 years. Pull up recalls for the 21 F150 ... 12? 13? Three for the 22's, and that does not include my APU that suddenly blanks out at highway speed. EV's that catch fire, or just don't work. Predicted reliability that ranks BELOW STELLANTIS! Ford may have increased their output but at the expense of quality. Ford had a press release about this too, using social media to track defects.

And as for increased production. I recall Ross Perot's comment to Bill Clinton, You've doubled your economy? Well, I have one dime in my pocket. I add another, and I have doubled my income. Critical minds want to know how they increased production. Could it have anything to do with NPX reporting the chip shortage is over? And now they can release vehicles that were on chip hold and can count those in production numbers? Could it be that Ford has deleted features that were parts of packages, and they are now producing what they want, not what the customers ordered? Press releases are designed to accentuate the positive and redirect from the negative.

John, shake your M8B again. We have to factor in used car inventory. Again, used car values effect new car prices. If new prices exceed 30% of 1 year old used same model, manufacturers will respond. Just like used car purchasers jumped to new when there was parity in pricing. If the gap between new and used is too great, people will be satisfied with getting "almost new" for 2/3 of the price.

And Bruce #1, we're gonna have to put you on adjective restriction.
"... the undeniable vast number of thousands ..."
I don't buy your aviation line. Admit it, your a politician masquerading as a FAA Certified Manufacturer.

 

[Snakebitten]

I don't proofread enough before I hit submit. Guilty.
But my point wasn't lost I don't think.

Ford is delivering many thousands of trucks every week that aren't represented on the forum. And some percentage of those customers are not experiencing the extraordinary wait times nor getting less than what they ordered. Especially those folks in the XL/STX/XLT trim levels.

 

[personalt]

One thing that is not really being mentioned here is the large number of people sitting on the sideline who want/need a new car but gave up. For most people ordering a truck and waiting 7 months to get it is not realistic. To order without at least being able to see a similar example on the lot is not realistic. I think if the market starts to catch up a whole new set of buyers is ready to come in. That will keep the market in check for a while.

 

[IGF150]

MSRP decline is a pipe dream. You’re talking about 15% deflation which is pretty much impossible. I can defiantly see some incentives returning eventually

Facts. Ford is not reducing their price so by waiting you're essentially playing with fire because the costs of transportation and raw materials have gone through the roof which in turn is going to cause Ford to raise their prices. On top of a shortage of used trucks and new trucks taking forever to build their value is going to hold for quite some time.

I do agree that some incentives will return but not the old days of 0% APR or $5K+ off MSRP.

 

[Snakebitten]

I gotta admit that almost EVERYTHING is going up in price at an alarming rate. In our business it is very noticeable because of the repetition in purchasing and so a-b comparisons from purchase order to purchase order is on display for anyone who even glances.

So no surprise that an automotive manufacturer is facing exactly the same increase in cost across the board for almost every component.

It's a brutal reality that makes you feel like you are being economically assaulted!

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