So when does the big dump begin?

[shawizkid]

I don’t have to tell myself anything because it’s collected research. One goes on data collected to form opinion.

Yeah, it could stay tight but with recession in place now, it could get real tough for everyone, especially with these jacked vehicles prices dealers are charging while the banks are not lending based on jacked price, requiring higher down payments. I believe that I read that yesterday on the actual Ford forum yesterday. Ford is worried and trying to get a handle on it but cannot be seen as “pricing controls” of the distribution. Especially since Ford would like to evolve into complete direct order base system without the local dealer sales site overhead.

So will vehicles be sold in few years like a Amazon style of business?

You’re out there man!

I don’t see large incentives coming for any truck anytime soon. Certainly not this fall.

I also don’t see much of a chance of direct to consumer sales anytime soon, especially not on any national scale.

But by all means if you trust your “research”, then take a huge breath, and hold away!

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[texski]

Being retired and all, I went on investigative research on Ford.com for F-150 Platinum from areas Midwest, East, South, and far west as Oklahoma/Texas before coming to a conclusion. There is lots and lots of non-delivered dealer orders with viewable Window Sticker VIN numbers with production dates from January through March of 2022 with all the goodies that’s currently being deleted from May.

Items like the Motion Seats, Max Recline Seats, Carmelo Color Interior are still listed in the “Viewed Window Sticker”. These window stickers are currently 4,5, and 6 months old.

So these F-150’s are just sitting out on some vacant lot rusting away? ?

I have feeling these vehicles are going be chipped up in fall, shipped to dealers lots, and will be incentivized for sale throughout next year, meaning one could be sad after paying the MSRP + $6K lot pricing going on today for a soon to be one year old 2022 F-150.

For all others with custom orders, hang in there. It will be alright.?

On a side note, there are several “green” custom order window stickers with the current deletions scattered around. Blue stickers are the dealer stock orders. It looks to me that many has told the dealer “Go Pound Sand”.?

apophenia
noun

1. The perception of or belief in connectedness among unrelated phenomena.

A word often used in research. It means the conclusions you have drawn are not supported by data you have used. Also see Type 1 and Type 2 errors.

With that preface, it is interesting, but I don't think you can get there. Traditionally, yes, over supply equals incentives, but there are many other factors that will disqualify your conclusion.

First, you trusted Ford. Ford has been the poster child for ambiguity when it comes to communication. Like others have said, they do not provide all the details about an order via their website.

One of the best sources for actionable information about what is on dealers' lot is at JoinYAA.com (Your Automotive Advocate), you do not need to be a member to see this information. They have a search that gives information like how long that certain vehicle has been on the lot. Ford will offer a vehicle that has been assigned a VIN, and sometimes a Window Sticker, and not yet been built.

Second, Ford is being poorly run. #FireFarley
- They have lost $Billions with their bad investment in Rivian.
- They also have the worst initial quality in nearly 20 years, even though they are building fewer vehicles. This means they are taking from their "profits" to pay dealers to fix warranty and recall defects. And with all these high profile recalls, like EV's that catch fire or won't run, Ford will need to build cash reserves to pay for these self inflicted wounds.
- Seems like they have nearly countless vehicles on "chip hold", even though NXP reports that there is no longer a delay. Automotive insiders report that manufacturers are unwilling to pay the "setup fee" and be moved to the front of the line. So they twiddle their thumbs, loosing $billions, waiting for their turn in line.
- Ford claims production numbers to be off by 100k this year. They cannot produce enough of their most popular, most profitable vehicles and they will have to reclaim that revenue from somewhere. Industry insiders are also reporting that some of these deleted features may not be a commodity constraint, but manufacturers testing the market to see what features they can remove in order to increase profits, i.e. - connected navigation.
- Ford is trying to change the customer/dealer/manufacture model. Manufacturer's realize that by limiting supply, they don't have to provide incentives. I think Ford has cut their incentives by 1/2 year to year. I don't recall the specific numbers, but it seems like Ford gave an average of $3k July 21, and $1.2k this July.

I could go on, but Ford continues to make stupid, shortsighted choices, and this will continue to hurt their bottom line. In short, Ford cannot afford $6k incentives. They are trying to manipulate the market so they can cover from their stupidity. The problem is that people like me, who have been loyal to Ford for over 40 years, join me in saying, I will never buy another Ford. Instead of dropping the price, they will just not produce as many. Shareholders will demand new leadership, and Ford will struggle to dig itself out of this hole.

 

[Ryan74]

- Ford is trying to change the customer/dealer/manufacture model. Manufacturer's realize that by limiting supply, they don't have to provide incentives. I think Ford has cut their incentives by 1/2 year to year. I don't recall the specific numbers, but it seems like Ford gave an average of $3k July 21, and $1.2k this July.

This only works for Ford if they’re the only choice. GM and Toyota will gladly steal their sales if Ford tries to keep doing this.

 

[texski]

This only works for Ford if they’re the only choice. GM and Toyota will gladly steal their sales if Ford tries to keep doing this.

You're exactly right! And I have watched MANY who have been on this site trying to track their orders because Ford did not communicate to the customers or the dealerships. They just gave up and told their dealers to keep it. They went and bought something else. So Ford's inventory is filled with Custom Retail Orders that were not delivered to the original customer. And then Ford penalizes the dealerships saying 75% of their Custom orders must be delivered to the person who placed the order ... or the dealership will be penalized! Ford takes orders is cannot possibly fulfill in a reasonable time. They forcibly delete features from the order, customers walk and dealers are prevented from making new orders. What of this makes sense?!!! #FireFarley

Toyota Trucks are made in San Antonio, TX. They did not remove features from orders, they were delivered as ordered. Toyota has earned a move to the top of my list.

 

[Snakebitten]

While I don't necessarily disagree with much of your points, I don't believe they apply only to Ford. On this website it is ALL Ford customer experiences.
But surely you have frequented the other American built truck forums and discovered the customer confusion, constraints, supply issues.... Etc?

Ford could indeed be the most egregious example. I don't know myself. But it's not just Ford, that's for sure.

By the way, I purchased a 2021 Platinum from inventory and drove it while I ordered a 2022 to be built exactly like I wanted.

It took longer than any vehicle I have ever ordered. But Ford did email when they got my order. Emailed me when they scheduled the build. Emailed me when it was built. Emailed me when it was shipped.

What other emails should they have sent me? I guess they could have sent me some emails in between just "checking in" with me? It might have been kinda cool, I admit.

I personally think Ford is dealing with the current historically bizarre circumstances admirably in some aspects and pathetically in others. But I don't think they have it the way they want it either. I can't even imagine the logistical obstacles an assembly line like that of the F150 has been facing. Gotta be a constant struggle.

 

[Zengineer]

i would love to find a hangar full of expedtions

It's even better actually. Those are Excursions in a Dubai warehouse.

 

[powerboatr]

It's even better actually. Those are Excursions in a Dubai warehouse.

yup fat fingered the expeditions vice excursions. they were awesome with the 7.3 or 6.0

 

[powerboatr]

While I don't necessarily disagree with much of your points, I don't believe they apply only to Ford. On this website it is ALL Ford customer experiences.
But surely you have frequented the other American built truck forums and discovered the customer confusion, constraints, supply issues.... Etc?

Ford could indeed be the most egregious example. I don't know myself. But it's not just Ford, that's for sure.

By the way, I purchased a 2021 Platinum from inventory and drove it while I ordered a 2022 to be built exactly like I wanted.

It took longer than any vehicle I have ever ordered. But Ford did email when they got my order. Emailed me when they scheduled the build. Emailed me when it was built. Emailed me when it was shipped.

What other emails should they have sent me? I guess they could have sent me some emails in between just "checking in" with me? It might have been kinda cool, I admit.

I personally think Ford is dealing with the current historically bizarre circumstances admirably in some aspects and pathetically in others. But I don't think they have it the way they want it either. I can't even imagine the logistical obstacles an assembly line like that of the F150 has been facing. Gotta be a constant struggle.

a warm a fuzzy email once a week with pics of its parts entering the assembly line. ? ? ? ? ? had an RV like that once, they sent weekly updates, but it took 4 months to build.

agree all the companies are struggling because of poor choices during lockdown, but realistically they were protecting the companies . No one could have predicted the surge of consumer good desires, wants etc . with exception of FOOD and cleaning supplies etc.

i saw interview with CEO of gm and ford remarking they cancelled component orders and delivery because of unknowns and did not want to be stuck with huge excess inventory . like we had in 06 when manufacturers were almost giving away vehicles, it killed the used truck market for years



as far as some about incentives, i got over 3500 in incentives to buy the KR. plus used X plan.

 

[texski]

While I don't necessarily disagree with much of your points, I don't believe they apply only to Ford. On this website it is ALL Ford customer experiences.

You enable Ford. Toyota did not do this. It is an OPTION that every manufacturer makes. Simply saying, "Well, everybody else is doing it," is permissive and gives Ford no incentive to change. Everything Ford does is based on profits. As long as people continue to support Ford with their dollars and condone on social media, Ford will continue with these abusive tactics, it will be status quo.

But surely you have frequented the other American built truck forums and discovered the customer confusion, constraints, supply issues.... Etc?

No, I steered clear of GM because their approach is worse. Ram had horrible reliablity to start with, and one of the worst warranty services in the industry, next to BMW. But that is besides the point. I purchased Ford.

Ford could indeed be the most egregious example. I don't know myself. But it's not just Ford, that's for sure.

Ford has continued to slide in initial customer quality and reliability ... reaching a 20 Year Low. Dodge RAM ranks higher than Ford. And since Ford has recognized that recalls and warranty services effect their bottom line, they have a new campaign to identify recurring problems ... they are going to monitor social media posts. As Ford guts engineering and cut manufacturing, they will be using the highly scientific and reliable social media platforms to identify problems. Are you kidding me?! You have reduced the volume of trucks being built and your quality sinks to a 20 year low while Stellantis, know for one of the worst reliability numbers in the industry rises to #1?

By the way, I purchased a 2021 Platinum from inventory and drove it while I ordered a 2022 to be built exactly like I wanted.

I purchased a 22 KR 145 wb and ordered a 22 KR 157 wb at the same time.

What features did you have forcibly removed from you 22 order? Did you get Active Motion seats AND Navigation? 360 Camera and Max Recline seats? Did you get closable vents? Steering Assist?

It took longer than any vehicle I have ever ordered. But Ford did email when they got my order. Emailed me when they scheduled the build. Emailed me when it was built. Emailed me when it was shipped.

The first email I got was 5 months after I placed my order. The dealer misspelled my email address and after it was corrected, Ford refused to send an Order Confirmation. WTH does emailing an order confirmation have to do with chips or commodity restraints? It was just too much trouble to generate a response?! THIS attitude permeates the Ford Corporate mindset. Instead of adapting, they abstain. And every decision imposed on customers reflects that same philosophy, Take it or Leave it, we have stopped listening to you.

What other emails should they have sent me? I guess they could have sent me some emails in between just "checking in" with me? It might have been kinda cool, I admit.

I suspect that your order was fulfilled before all of this degenerated into chaos. There are guys waiting 3 months for transport. Ford shows it is built and waiting to be shipped. Ford is ranked #22 in the Fortune 500 companies for 2022. And yet they won't bother to communicate to customers/dealerships where a given vehicle is in the system. Just because everybody else ... what about being a leader in the industry?! Set yourself apart instead of blending in with the crowd.

I personally think Ford is dealing with the current historically bizarre circumstances admirably in some aspects and pathetically in others. But I don't think they have it the way they want it either. I can't even imagine the logistical obstacles an assembly line like that of the F150 has been facing. Gotta be a constant struggle.

PLEASE, enough with this, "But everybody else ..." Ford is being run by imbeciles, and this effects the value of your truck. Right now, Ford is tightly controlling the supply of vehicles available. They are moving to a model with the dealerships that will allow Ford to determine the sales price of their vehicles, and they are looking to cut dealers out of the financing and warranty products. Leasees of EV products will be able to purchase their vehicle at the end of the term ... because Ford wants to fill their lots instead of competing with private party sales. And Ford is forcing Lightning owners to sign a "non-compete" contract agreeing not sell their truck before 1 year of delivery.

I ask, what has Ford done for you in the last 18 months that has left you feeling satisfied and secure about your partnership with them? And on the other side, let's put this in the balance.

When you buy at the height of the market, you pay a premium. When the market normalizes and you go to trade, you are now competing with the cost of New vehicles. Let's use some current examples. We know that new car MSRPs jumped by 20% from 2019. A 2022 KR with a MSRP of $75k, no market adjustments. A 2021 with the same features, has a KBB Trade-in value of $66,220 in Excellent condition. Private party, $70,076, but that doesn't really matter. So when market's normalize in 1.5 - 2 years, and the MSRP drops 15% (not including incentives), the new MSRP for that formerly $75k KR will be $63,750.

Let's put it this way
2021 KR $66,220 (1 year depreciation, Excellent condition)
2024 KR $63,750 (15% decline in MSRP)

First of all, that 1 year old KR will not be valued at $66k. It will reflect 3 years of depreciation. So no one will want to pay more for the same truck that is 4 years old vs a new truck that is cheaper. $63,750 is your new target. In 2 years, people who financed their 21-22 trucks for more than 48 months will be UPSIDE DOWN and they will owe more than the truck is worth. And this is because of the way that Ford has run their business. Billions lost to Rivian, abusive customer service and poor quality control will unfairly lower the value of our trucks to a major extent. I firmly believe our trucks will be labeled Pandemic Trucks and have a questionable reputation, and be less marketable, just like 5.4L 3v trucks.

So, while people give Ford a pass for being sheep, Ford finds no incentive to change. 16 months later the shareholders will say, Pandemic is over. You have had since 2019 to adapt. What have you done to overcome? Supply chain has nothing to do with the decisions being flushed out from Ford Corporate. Farting sparkles and rainbows does nothing to change Ford. #FireFarley

 

[texski]

a warm a fuzzy email once a week with pics of its parts entering the assembly line. ? ? ? ? ? had an RV like that once, they sent weekly updates, but it took 4 months to build.

agree all the companies are struggling because of poor choices during lockdown, but realistically they were protecting the companies . No one could have predicted the surge of consumer good desires, wants etc . with exception of FOOD and cleaning supplies etc.

i saw interview with CEO of gm and ford remarking they cancelled component orders and delivery because of unknowns and did not want to be stuck with huge excess inventory . like we had in 06 when manufacturers were almost giving away vehicles, it killed the used truck market for years



as far as some about incentives, i got over 3500 in incentives to buy the KR. plus used X plan.

When did you receive the $3,500 incentive?
My friend used his in 2020 to buy his 21. I doubt there are any in the last 3 months.

 

[Snakebitten]

I realize it's not voque or popular these days to not be sour and grumpy for even the slightest inconvenience or shortcoming, but it IS a Ford F150 forum and so it's only natural for some percentage of the members to be Ford F150 happy customers?

I've been one for many years. I've had a few and have been a happy owner for all of them but 1. (made the mistake of buying a color of paint that I couldn't come to terms with)

I have purchased 2 Powerboosts for myself and 1 for corporate use. All 3 have been (or were) exemplary, so far, and are stunning advancements in so many ways.

Ford, as an engineering force, is impressive.

 

[Kodiak]

Let's put it this way
2021 KR $66,220 (1 year depreciation, Excellent condition)
2024 KR $63,750 (15% decline in MSRP)

Anybody thinks that there will be a 15% (yes 15%?) decline in MSRP in 2024, is looking for a nice new bridge in Brooklyn I can sell them.

 

[texski]

Anybody thinks that there will be a 15% (yes 15%?) decline in MSRP in 2024, is looking for a nice new bridge in Brooklyn I can sell them.

Anybody who would ever think that Ford would continually raise the price over 2 years and offer fewer options would buy that bridge. A 2023 build of my 2022 KR is $5,575 more, and does not include Active Motion or Navigation. This is simply not sustainable when GM and Ram are already offering incentives. While not truly a discounted MSRP, the effective cost of the vehicle is less. Ram offering $6k incentives. People who ordered from Ford and got tired of being jerked around are jumping all over this.

Ford will compete, and drop their prices especially when 2025's have landed on the lot (Aug 2024). And this price drop will be further exasperated by lenders' APR. Higher rates afford less truck.

You can spit in one hand, wish in the other, and see which one fills up faster. Our trucks will have a horrendous depreciation in 2 years and new trucks MSRP will decline after normalization. To ignore this is naive.

 

[powerboatr]

When did you receive the $3,500 incentive?
My friend used his in 2020 to buy his 21. I doubt there are any in the last 3 months.

pco , farm buruea and 1k 1000 in free accessories
and x plan

 

[Ryan74]

When you buy at the height of the market, you pay a premium. When the market normalizes and you go to trade, you are now competing with the cost of New vehicles. Let's use some current examples. We know that new car MSRPs jumped by 20% from 2019. A 2022 KR with a MSRP of $75k, no market adjustments. A 2021 with the same features, has a KBB Trade-in value of $66,220 in Excellent condition. Private party, $70,076, but that doesn't really matter. So when market's normalize in 1.5 - 2 years, and the MSRP drops 15% (not including incentives), the new MSRP for that formerly $75k KR will be $63,750.

Sure this might be a problem if you upgrade your truck every other year to have the latest and greatest. But those of us like me who plan on keeping their truck 10 years I’m not too worried about short term price fluctuations.

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