Raptor lightning / electric??

[travisN000]

..more video:
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=rtr+lightning

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[amschind]

To be clear everything is gonna go to electric traction motors. The issue that current generation EVs will face is that hub motors capitalize of the possibilities far better than the current crop of more traditional EV drive trains with differentials and CV shafts. Farley publicly stated that the Lightning has a traditional drivetrain because of reliability issues with hub motors. I would go so far as to say that reliable and easily replaced hub motor bearings are THE chief technical hurdle left for EVs. The next hill to climb after that is solid oxide direct carbon fuel cells.

BEVs have forced innovation in the auto industry that had completely stagnated for far too long. So the obvious take away is that in many ways a Lightning is better than anything else on the road, and it others it is laughable. It's the goofy dinosaur that looks like a bipedal gecko but eventually turns into the velociraptor.

 

[HammaMan]

To be clear everything is gonna go to electric traction motors. The issue that current generation EVs will face is that hub motors capitalize of the possibilities far better than the current crop of more traditional EV drive trains with differentials and CV shafts. Farley publicly stated that the Lightning has a traditional drivetrain because of reliability issues with hub motors. I would go so far as to say that reliable and easily replaced hub motor bearings are THE chief technical hurdle left for EVs. The next hill to climb after that is solid oxide direct carbon fuel cells.

BEVs have forced innovation in the auto industry that had completely stagnated for far too long. So the obvious take away is that in many ways a Lightning is better than anything else on the road, and it others it is laughable. It's the goofy dinosaur that looks like a bipedal gecko but eventually turns into the velociraptor.

For off-road there's still a lot to be said regarding lockers. Rivian can kinda do okay with its quad motors but it's still not pretty -- seems to be an unsure traction system that doesn't like no power required to turn one wheel, but substantially more to turn another. It's a problem that's plagued traction control systems for decades.

Hub motors themselves is a whole other can of worms. I won't be buying 1st or 2nd year runs of such vehicles for damn sure. I could see a recall needing to replace them entirely due to not knowing what they don't know until they're in the wild getting beaten up. Also need a clever solution for routing 800v 3 phase to the wheel.

 

[JExpedition07]

To be clear everything is gonna go to electric traction motors. The issue that current generation EVs will face is that hub motors capitalize of the possibilities far better than the current crop of more traditional EV drive trains with differentials and CV shafts. Farley publicly stated that the Lightning has a traditional drivetrain because of reliability issues with hub motors. I would go so far as to say that reliable and easily replaced hub motor bearings are THE chief technical hurdle left for EVs. The next hill to climb after that is solid oxide direct carbon fuel cells.

BEVs have forced innovation in the auto industry that had completely stagnated for far too long. So the obvious take away is that in many ways a Lightning is better than anything else on the road, and it others it is laughable. It's the goofy dinosaur that looks like a bipedal gecko but eventually turns into the velociraptor.

Once solid state batteries are able to be produced in mass we are there. Current batteries pretty much suck, using a liquid electrolyte is 100 year old tech. Right now it’s 100 year old battery technology vs 100 year old ICE technology. Once this battery tech that is all ready cracked come out in mass it’s over for ICE. We will have energy density, the thing current outdated batteries fail at. We also will be able to charge much faster.

Until then I’ll enjoy my V8, and maybe (hopefully) a hybrid V8 after this one. I think by after the next truck we will have EV’s to the point where I’ll be ready and happy to jump.

 

[amschind]

Once solid state batteries are able to be produced in mass we are there. Current batteries pretty much suck, using a liquid electrolyte is 100 year old tech. Right now it’s 100 year old battery technology vs 100 year old ICE technology. Once this battery tech that is all ready cracked come out in mass it’s over for ICE. We will have energy density, the thing current outdated batteries fail at. We also will be able to charge much faster.

Until then I’ll enjoy my V8, and maybe (hopefully) a hybrid V8 after this one. I think by after the next truck we will have EV’s to the point where I’ll be ready and happy to jump.

Solid state is about a 30% improvement in energy density, maybe up to 0.5 kWh/kg (that's about double where they are now). Gasoline is 12.9 kWh/kg, but you have to multiply that by the efficiency in converting it to electricity or rotational motion and be sure to include the overhead for getting it to the wheels. So let's assume that solid state lithium does get a 100% increase, which it won't, but for the sake of argument. Gasoline ICE engines have a #500 engine AND a #500 transmission added into the energy density calculation AND they only convert 25% of the energy into useful energy. So right now, a pure ICE vehicle has at most 3.125 kWh/kg AND you have to add in 450 kg of engine/transmission overhead. BEVs are, right now, as close as they will ever be to catching ICE vehicles.

The issue is that a spark ignition vehicle with the crank connected to the wheels is archaic. turbocharged, compression ignition 2stroke opposed piston engines are still very old but are still dramatically better in terms of efficiency. You can build a 37 MPG gas powered F150 today (it has been around since 2018 but I'm not sure where Aramco keeps it these days), and that's just using a scaled down Junkers Jumo 205 clone bolted to a 10R80. That pushes the ICE efficiency to 45%, or 5.8 kWh/kg. It is also lighter, even if still built from cast aluminum. 50% is probably achievable, but the SAE hasn't gotten there yet.

The next step is using electric traction motors. This is not strictly required to use advanced engines but it is nearly as big of a step up. The major benefit is not prime mover thermal efficiency, but that the transmission vanishes forever. Hub motors mean that the differentials and CV shafts disappear too; that advantage accrues equally to BEVs and HEVs, but shedding the #500 transmission evens the scales.

Finally, BMW built out a steam bottoming cycle for their 2.3l I4 which actually had impressive efficiency gains, something like 15% increased MPG. While for a series hybrid where the motor is either on or off the gain would likely be greater vs the standard ICE transmission powerplant that BMW used it on, there would be less thermal energy in the exhaust for a more efficient engine. 15% is likely conservative, but it pushes the number to 51%, or 6.6 kWh/kg.

Finally, engines don't have to be made of cast aluminum. Steel works very well for wrist pins, but we will see carbon fiber blocks, con rods, and pistons with ceramic bearing journals, piston faces and cylinder liners. A #300 could get to #200.

The point of all of this is that using tech that exists in cars right now, we can move the pitiful 3.12 kWh/kg (PLUS THE EXTRA 450kg of overhead weight) to AT LEAST 6.6 kWh/kg with 150kg of extra weight.

None of this takes into account the development of direct carbon fuel cells which are currently 55-60% efficient before any bottoming cycle is considered. I HOPE that one day we will have a SOFC with a thermoelectric bottoming cycle where the only moving parts in the whole car are the blower fans, the coolant pump, the fuel pump, the AC compressor motor, the traction motor oil pump, the windshield wiper motors, the cabin blower motor, the steering wheel actuator, and the traction motors.

 

[JExpedition07]

 

[HammaMan]

Finally, engines don't have to be made of cast aluminum. Steel works very well for wrist pins, but we will see carbon fiber blocks, con rods, and pistons with ceramic bearing journals, piston faces and cylinder liners. A #300 could get to #200.

CF blocks? Not expecting to see that in our lifetime. Granted we really don't know what ai will bring in the next few years when we turn loose massive clusters to sit and ponder ways to solve problems we didn't even think were problems. The concept of having so much computer power and allowing it just bruteforce every possible outcome is going to yield some crazy results. There could be a way to use gasoline to run a fuel cell of sorts obsoleting reciprocating combustion entirely. Or a revolutionary "safe" nuclear decay battery. "In silico" is going to change everything and it will look nothing like what we've seen in our lifetimes.

 

[powerboatr]

Iirc. Hub mounted electric drive motors are used in very heavy mining dump trucks
Granted they are huge in relation to passenger vehicles.

 

[JExpedition07]

Iirc. Hub mounted electric drive motors are used in very heavy mining dump trucks
Granted they are huge in relation to passenger vehicles.

Very low speed/rpm. You aren’t hitting potholes at 65 MPH either. When I am off roading in 4L, forces on hubs are much lower even through big dips and bumps vs when you hit a pothole on the highway at 75 MPH and it sends a large shock through the hub.

 

[amschind]

Iirc. Hub mounted electric drive motors are used in very heavy mining dump trucks
Granted they are huge in relation to passenger vehicles.

They are hub motors, but they aren't (usually) electric. There are probably some electric models, but for the most part they are hydraulic fluid powered swash plate motors. Electric motors make more sense and are much more efficient, but heavy equipment manufacturers were more comfortable with hydraulics and the efficiency advantage for electric motors is larger than it was in say 1980.

 

[powerboatr]

Very low speed/rpm. You aren’t hitting potholes at 65 MPH either. When I am off roading in 4L, forces on hubs are much lower even through big dips and bumps vs when you hit a pothole on the highway at 75 MPH and it sends a large shock through the hub.

Yes..I was mentioning it as it's tried technology for severe duty.
Torque , weight etc
Making it smaller and more speed capable should not be like reinventing the wheel as it were?

 

[powerboatr]

They are hub motors, but they aren't (usually) electric. There are probably some electric models, but for the most part they are hydraulic fluid powered swash plate motors. Electric motors make more sense and are much more efficient, but heavy equipment manufacturers were more comfortable with hydraulics and the efficiency advantage for electric motors is larger than it was in say 1980.

In Wyoming my bil. Did rebuilds for ge hub motors.
And yes there were hydraulic ones as well

 

[amschind]

CF blocks? Not expecting to see that in our lifetime. Granted we really don't know what ai will bring in the next few years when we turn loose massive clusters to sit and ponder ways to solve problems we didn't even think were problems. The concept of having so much computer power and allowing it just bruteforce every possible outcome is going to yield some crazy results. There could be a way to use gasoline to run a fuel cell of sorts obsoleting reciprocating combustion entirely. Or a revolutionary "safe" nuclear decay battery. "In silico" is going to change everything and it will look nothing like what we've seen in our lifetimes.

Look at the links below. Right now, random oriented carbon "forgings" are $19k/set race parts (and that's $19k for the pistons and another $19k for the con rods), so nowhere near production ready. If we get there for large scale manufacture, my guess is that replacing the epoxy resin with a metal would now only increase large volume efficiency (you're waiting on aluminum to cool vs epoxy to cure, and cycle time is the limiting factor for batch production systems) but also make for a much stronger part. Cermets and carbon reinforced metal may be the holy grail for material science, and they aren't intrinsically expensive.

As for blocks, I have no idea what the base material will be in 20 years. HOWEVER, economical ceramic coatings for bores and piston faces may be the innovation that pushes peak combustion pressures/temperatures up, and efficiency with them.

For AI, the place where I think that could really shine is TEG development High electrical conductivity and low thermal conductivity is basically a contradiction in terms, but imagine what a 50% efficient TEG with a Thot of 200C would do. I have no idea if that's possible, but a purely solid state bottoming cycle would be so amazing that I think that it's worth the effort. I would say SOFC design and room temperature superconductor design as well, but it seems like our meat computers have gotten there without recourse to HAL.

 

[HammaMan]

Yeah, the big mining trucks are setup like locomotives. Much different life than road vehicles though. Everything on those trucks is massive and heavy. Pretty much the exact opposite of what you want in a vehicle.

The new found push into ai supercomputers is putting a demand on grids. We're expecting to 1000x in 5 years which is bonkers. We need a way to be able to use fossil fuels in a new manner. If gasoline could be cracked for hydrogen extraction and up the efficiency to the 90s that'd be a game changer.

 

[JExpedition07]

The 5.0 uses a ceramic hybrid with its PTWA cylinder liners. It’s been quite successful beyond the initial teething issues figuring out the correct ring to control the oil that better sticks to the cylinder bore. The cylinder liners are Nanocrystalline Iron with FeO (ceramic) hybrid. The engineers that designed the 3rd and 4th gen 5.0L V8 stated in all the durability testing the 5.0 still has the cross hashing at the 200,000 mile mark, and that cylinder bore wear was non-existent. They also state you do not need to hone the bores when you rebuild these motors, the coating is that hard. New rings and pistons on rebuild, but no work to the bores. Ford does the same practice for the remans on these engines, but I recall reading that Ford can re-do the process on remans in the event it’s required (apparently not often). The one caveat is that you need a new block if you have a catastrophic failure that cracks the coating.

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